What's Kim Jong Un's intention with the nuclear test?
(CNN) -- On Tuesday, the international community reacted to North Korea's third nuclear test by calling its action "provocative," while South Korea's foreign minister warned that it was a "clear threat to international peace and security."
It was what Kim Jong Un, the nation's young leader, wanted.
From the North Korean
government's view, the more pressure the international community places
on its nuclear testing, the better. They enjoy the chatter among the
world's leaders and at the U.N. about how North Korea's nuclear program
must be stopped at all cost.
On January 23,
the North Korean foreign ministry notified that they intended to carry
out a test. They also sent photos of Kim Jong Un holding a meeting with
senior officials.
If Kim had not acted by
going through with the underground blast, it would have appeared that he
had succumbed to pressure from the international community. In North
Korea the authority of the "king" in the dynasty system cannot be
compromised.
The date of the nuclear test -- conducted on February 12
-- is also significant, as it fell just days short of the 71st birthday
of Kim's late father, Kim Jong Il, on February 16. Many North Korean
events are associated with symbolic dates for the Kim family. On December 12,
just days before the first anniversary of Kim Jong II's death,
Pyongyang launched its first rocket into orbit -- despite international
uproar
North Korea has staked
its pride on these events. Saving face is more important than
international sanctions, even if hundreds of thousands of ordinary North
Koreans have died of hunger.
Even so, I cannot say the
motivation behind North Korea's nuclear test is for Kim's pride alone.
It also sends a message to its people that "Kim Jong Un leads the
world."
Even with the nuclear
test, the government knows that war will not arise. But to its people,
it can give the impression that war is impending.
Inheriting his father's
position at such a young age -- he's believed to be in his 20s -- many
in North Korea may question whether Kim has the clout to lead. But
through this test, Kim wanted to send a strong message domestically that
he is in charge.
What happens if they do
develop an effective nuclear weapon? Does North Korea intend to attack
the United States? That is impossible. If North Korea attacks, it will
be sent back to the Stone Ages -- the leadership in Pyongyang is well
aware of that.
Does this point to an
eventual attack on South Korea then? South Korea is protected by a
nuclear umbrella -- meaning that the United States will protect it. In
return for Seoul limiting its own nuclear weapons capability, Washington
offers its protection. If North Korea attacks South Korea, it's
effectively an attack on the United States.
Another major reason why
North Korea is developing a nuclear capability is that its conventional
military is dated and there are doubts about whether it can defend
itself. While North Korea has an estimated 1.2 million soldiers, making
it the third largest military behind China and United States, this is
only a number.
It may be hard to
believe but for almost 20 years, there have been continued food
shortages in the military, to the extent that as many as 20% to 30% of
the armed forces have actually disappeared -- with many deserting their
post by way of a bribe to their superiors. Those that do remain in
service are often involved in petty crime to get by, such as stealing
from the civilian population.
North Korea requires
military service for 10 years. During those years, most are discharged
without even having fired 30 bullets. Without sufficient fuel for
planes, airborne troops have not had much training. In 1990, I stood
guard at a post in Pyongyang. The anti-aircraft weapon I used was a
1940s era model from the Soviet Union.
If war is to occur,
North Korea could not stand, even for days, and it is well aware of
that. But could it count on traditional ally, China, for support?
Starting from Kim Il
Sung, the founder of North Korea, the North Korean regime has never
fully trusted China. The message that China is a nation that could
strike North Korea at the "back of the head" has been passed down over
the years to Kim Jong Un, his grandson. Since North Korea cannot count
on Beijing fully, it has turned to the nuclear option as a deterrent.
North Korea would not
risk a pre-emptive attack on the South, but the Kim dynasty now believes
it has a card to protect itself, which is its main objective. For this
reason, even if millions of people starve to death in the effects of the
harsh sanctions, North Korea will keep trying to develop its own
nuclear capabilities.
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